A Scary State

Earlier much was made of Raul's call for frank discussion. At the time, a few noted that this was a time-tested Castro pattern used to identify potential enemies. Well, this analysis, published in the Miami Herald, lends a more sinister interpretation to the current "catch and release" policies of the new/old regime, particularly when it comes to the "Cambio" campaign in Cuba and should come as no surprise to those who know that the security services in Cuba patterned themselves after the East German Stasi.

Here's an excerpt:

Concurrently, the DCI coordinates with police and security forces to maintain moderate pressure on Cambio. This maintains the perception that Cambio attracts government attention and a level of harassment consistent with the other dissident movements. It also allows more opportunities to turn Cambio members into informants.

As years pass, the DCI will continue to infiltrate agents and officers, some of whom will become such trusted insiders that they eventually secure leadership positions.
During this period, Havana will continue to ''tolerate'' Cambio's existence and enjoy the favorable media coverage that results. Then, at the moment most politically advantageous to the regime, the government will move in and cripple it by detaining all its senior and mid-level leadership. Historically, such acts are timed to divert attention from a massive government failure or to seize a political opening in which it can avoid significant international repercussions.

During the crackdown, many DCI personnel who infiltrated the campaign will be ''detained'' along with legitimate Cambio members. This ensures the safety of its personnel and creates an opportunity for intelligence collection in the most unlikely of places -- a Cuban jail. Then, having crippled the movement, the DCI will reveal the identity of many of its penetration agents and officers, denounce Cambio as a CIA operation and assist in the show trials.